Finding the bottom with Behavioral Finance

I was having a debate of sorts with an individual on an online forum about actively managing your portfolio verses passively managing your portfolio. During the discussion I explained that I use Behavioral Finance to decide when to change my allocation.

Below is an explanation of behavioral finance from Wikipedia.com

"Behavioral economics and behavioral finance are closely related fields that have evolved to be a separate branch of economic and financial analysis which applies scientific research on human and social, cognitive and emotional factors to better understand economic decisions by consumers, borrowers, investors, and how they affect market prices, returns and the allocation of resources.

The field is primarily concerned with the bounds of rationality (selfishness, self-control) of economic agents. Behavioral models typically integrate insights from psychology with neo-classical economic theory. Behavioral Finance has become the theoretical basis for technical analysis. [1]

Behavioral analysts are mostly concerned with the effects of market decisions, but also those of public choice, another source of economic decisions with some similar biases towards promoting self-interest."

I use behavioral finance along with other information to help me find the top and bottom of the market. I can do this because I talk to many individuals a week about there investments. I start to see patterns in the questions and behaviors of investors and get an idea if we are near the top, bottom or still have further to go in either direction.

Let me give you some examples. In late 2004 and early 2005 many of the people I talked to who sold there stocks back in the bear market of 2000-02 were telling me that they did not want to get back into stocks until the market started doing better. The S&P returned 28.7% in 2003 and 10.87% in 2004. The market recover was well on its way, yet I was meeting people who did not realize it. At the time I was thinking about reducing my equity position but from talking to individuals and realizing that the turnaround did not hit the average American I held on to my stocks.

In 2006 everyone I talked to wanted to buy and sell real estate. That is one signal we could be near the top. Think of gold right now. Then I started to hear people talk irrational, which is when I start to think about taking action. Several people I talked to made the same statement, “you can never lose money in real estate”. So in 2006 I put one of my investment properties up for sale and realized that the slow down had all ready begun.

So the question is, using behavioral finance are we at the bottom. It is harder for me to tell this time around because no strategy will work if the financial system is broken. I do have some signs that make me optimistic that we are nearing a turnaround. One sign is the local news cashing in on the crisis with stories like, “Recession Sex” brought to you by Fox news of course. I have not met with an investor in weeks who wanted to sell their stocks. All I need now is some people making irrational statements. Then there is a more fundamental sign, a record amount of money going into treasury securities. Some people are calling it a treasury bubble and I have to agree.

It is important to point out that I only make slight changes to my allocation like going from 80% equities to 60%. I just take some off the table. This way if I am wrong I do not get hurt that bad. I also want to point out that I  moved all my retirement money into equities when the Dow dipped below 8000 the first time. I did not use behavioral finance but I got anxious.  If I was using behavioral finance I would not of bought.  

As somebody who advises people on investing I still think the vast majority of individuals are best served with a buy and hold strategy with the occasional rebalancing of their portfolio.  Your average worker in a 401K plan just does not want to sell when they see their investments making money and do not want to buy the investments losing money.  

Are you a buy and hold investor or do you actively management your portfolio?

America’s Lost Confidence

I try not to let the current state of our economy get me down or the losses in my retirement portfolio. For the most part they have not. What has got me down and angry is the failed leadership of both our corporate and political leaders. First the tax issues of President Obama’s picks. If our political leaders cheat on their taxes, what do they expect the average American to do? Our system works because millions of Americans line up every year to pay their fair share of taxes to keep the country running.

Personally I do not see why anyone would need to cheat on their taxes. Individuals like Timothy Geithner should know the system well enough to barely pay taxes. I get my effective tax rate below 15% and some years 10% because I know the system.

On The Journal with Bill Moyers he played a sound bite of a top Morgan Stanly official basically explaining to management about their “retention award” in his own words, “…please don’t call it a bonus…” What a slap in the face to the American people. Not so much the fact that they are paying out a bonus, but that they believe the people are so stupid that we would believe rebranding the word bonus to retention award would have us believe it is any different. I guess the managers were being lured away by Merrill Lynch or Lehman brothers.

On top of this entire financial crisis you have the Madoffs of the world coming out of the woodworks. Guys who work hard, not to make you money, but to rip you off. As someone who works in the industry I want these guys to do hard time in the same prison with criminals who rob us with a gun instead of a pen.

Then the icing on the cake or should I say peanut butter. One of the largest manufacture’s of peanut butter blatantly let a tainted product be consumed by millions, killing about 8 people that we know of. As far as I am concerned this is a capital punishment case.

I know there will be people who say that it is easy to point out what is wrong and we need to focus on what is right. I think we need to point out what is wrong, demand change and do what ever it takes to get it. I am optimistic about America’s future because at the end of the day it is a government by the people and we can change what is wrong.

Spend More, Save Less

There is a lot of talk among economist that Americans need to spend more and save less to help get the economy moving again.  There is a reason why they are called economist and not financial planners.  It is true that Americans are saving more than they have in the past, but it may not be what you think.  Including in the savings rate are those who are paying down debt.  So if you put an extra $100 a month toward your credit card bill that is counted as savings.  What economist are saving is true, when everyone starts to “save” at the same time it has a negative impact on the economy, but telling people to spend in this environment is poor financial advice.

Americans are doing the right thing by paying down debt and padding their bank accounts.  It is not the role of the individual to get the economy moving in such a crisis.  Let the government borrow and spend.  They have the power to print money and tax the people.  They will not lose their home or go hungry from borrowing. 

In theory government spending should grow the economy and create jobs.  As individuals get a 3-5 year contract to build a bridge or road they will feel confident in their employment and start spending again.  Their spending will ripple through the economy and put more money in the pockets of merchants who may hire help or spend more themselves.  That is the theory, but before you start spending again the advice from the financial planning community is, pay down debt, build your savings and cut expenses. 

If the government stimulus does turn the economy around, then you will be in a better position and can always start spending again.  

Mutual Fund Share Classes

Many investors have no idea what mutual fund share class they are in or why. If you are about to do business with a broker or advisor a little education will go a long way.
There are three main share Classes; A, B, and C. Class Y will represent other share Classes explained later.

	Class A	Class B	Class C	Class Y
Managemant Fee	.50	.50	.50	.50
12b-1 Fee	.25	1.00	1.00	0
Other	.10	.15	.20	.15
Total annual Expense Ratio	.85	1.65	1.70	.65

Excluding class Y, you can see from the table above that Class A has the lowest annual expense ratio. The annual expense ratio is the fee taken from the fund each year. It is somewhat of a hidden expense because you never see it come out of your personal account. Instead it is taken from the fund's assets. The net effect to you is a total return minus the expense ratio. So if you own Class A shares and the fund returned 10% the fund company takes .85% and you get 9.15% versus Class B where you would get 8.3%. So why would anybody by Class B or C? Class A carries a 5% or more front end sales load. A front end sales load is taken from the amount you put into the fund. If you contribute $10,000, only $9,500 is invested.

Class B has a back end or contingent deferred sales load. The load is on a declining scale. For example if you sell your shares in the year one or two you pay 5%, year three you pay 4% until the load goes to zero in year 6 or more.

Class C you will only pay the load if you sell the shares within the first year. After the first year the load usually is zero.

Now you are thinking why buy Class A or B. The answer is because of the expense ratio. Class A has the lowest expense ratio and Class C the highest. Over long periods of time Class C becomes the most expensive. The class with the lowest expense ratio will have the highest rate of return. You pay less year after year so you keep more of the return. Eventually the compounding of the higher return makes up for the front end load in Class A. With most companies Class B shares will convert to Class A shares after a number of years and to the lower expense ratio. The Class C shares never get a reduction in expense ratio.

If you are going to hold your shares for 10 or more years more often you are better off with Class A. If you think you are going to hold your shares for 5 years or less, Class C may be your best bet and between 6 and 10 years Class B.

I also put Class Y in the table above. I picked any letter to describe the next set of share classes. Some companies may have one or two more share Classes and other will have several. Most of the other share classes have to do with shares offered in pension plans, 401(k) plans or sold through fee only advisors. They are generally the lowest priced share Class.

The information above is very general including the table. There are many variations to the share Classes by company. For example the spread in the over all expense ratio between the Classes, how long the contingent deferred sales charge is and when and if Class B converts to Class A. The aim here was to give you a general understanding of how share Classes work. I also wanted to point out that what seems like the obvious choice when looking at the sales loads, may not be your best bet when you consider the entire expenses of the fund.

The details about overall expenses can be found in the mutual fund’s prospectus. I encourage everyone at a minimum look at the expense section of the prospectus before you invest.

Recessions, Painful but Healthy

There has been a lot of news lately about a change in America’s attitude toward saving and becoming more fugal.  Americas have gone from a negative savings rate to a positive one.  It is now common place to hear people talk about how they are trying to save money on purchases.  This change in the savings rate and attitude was brought about by the recession.  Going back years you could read about how disturbing it was to financial professionals that we were at a negative savings rate.  People did not change their behavior until they had to. 

Recessions happen because we stray to far from the basics or fundamentals.  This time both individuals and companies over extended by borrowing or leveraging to much.   We ignored the fact that allowing individuals to borrow 100% or more with closing cost to purchase a home is a fundamentally flawed practice. At some point something has to give.

Take a look at the auto industry.   The companies that have been more efficient like Toyota, Honda, and Ford are doing much better than General Motors or Chrysler.  Without government intervention both GM and Chrysler would have failed and other auto makers would have become more profitable.  All the companies, even with the bailout are currently being forced to become more efficient. I am not trying to start a debate about the auto industry’s bailout, but most economists believe that a bailout only prolongs the economic cycle. In the end the recession will bring about long needed change in the auto industry.       

So what has changed for investors this time, nothing!  It really never does.  If you stick with the fundamentals and have time to wait out the corrections you will do well.  The hard part is turning off the noise coming from the talking heads.  Here is a question to ask if you are paying for managed money.  Did your advisor, trust company, broker etc. do any better for you than the market itself?  It will be hard to get a straight yes or no, but the answer will be no the majority of times. 

The fundamentals of investing are simple but hard to follow. 

Keep expenses low. 

Stay diversified.

Do not chase returns, like technology in the nineties, real estate this last go around and gold/commoditiess now.

Pay attention to taxes.

Buy good companies with good management and hold on to them.

Tune out the noise.

I do not know when the recession will be over, but it will end.  Those who follow the fundamentals will soon see profits again.

Reaquainting Myself with the Food Saver

Currently my household is running at a deficit and I do not think there is anything in the stimulus bill with my name on it, so I have been trying to think of ways to cut my expenses. The first thing I did was change my cable package. I all ready have a programmable thermostat and compact fluorescent light bulbs throughout the house. My wife and I have not been out to eat in months or done anything for entertainment. I just could not think of many other expenses to cut.

I kept thinking and finally it hit me, I stopped using my Food Saver. The Food Saver allows you to buy in large quantities and freeze food for a very long time without worrying about freezer burn. I looked in my freezer and it was almost empty. I made two lists one for my local supermarket and one for Sam’s Club. I checked out the prices at my local supermarket for items like ground beef and chicken to do some comparison shopping. One pound of ground beef at the supermarket was over $4 a pound. A package of chicken breast ranged from 8-9 dollars (I forgot to look at the weight). One pound of frozen peas, which I bought, was $2.50.

I got 6 lbs of ground beef at Sam’s Club for under $11.00. I got what would be the equivalent to 4-5 packages of chicken breast for $23.00. The same brand of frozen peas that I paid $2.50 a pound for was 5 lbs for about $5.30.

When I got home I repackaged everything with the food saver into one pound packages. My family consumes about 1 lb of meat at dinner. Ok, I eat most of it and my wife and kids eat some. By buying some of my food at Sam’s Club and using the Food Saver I am getting five meals for the price of one. That can add up to big savings over the course of a year.

The other thing I stop dong was buying my produce from the produce store that sell for example 3 heads of lettuce for $1.50 versus the supermarket that was $1.99 a head. Often when I buy produce from one these stores much of it goes to the compost pile. So I am going to ask my neighbors if they want to split the bill and the produce. This should save us even more money and I won’t feel guilty for wasting food.

I know many of you may all ready be doing the above, but I figure if I forgot about the Food Saver in the cabinet maybe others did to. Now if I can only start using the bread and pasta maker.

Share your suggesting on cutting expenses.

Investing, Who can you trust

With the news about Bernard Madoff and another “investment manager” Joseph S. Forte who took investors for about 50 million in the Philadelphia area, many investors are asking who you can trust for financial advice. The good news is there are basic things you can do to protect yourself.

Joseph S. Forte was not licensed or registered with the state or federal government. You will find that the majority of individuals committing securities fraud are not licensed or properly registered. This is your first line of defense. Go to the Financial Industry Regulator Authority’s website FINRA.org and use their BrokerCheck tool. This tool will let you know if the individual is registered with FINRA and if they have any violations. It also allows you to look up a registered investment advisor firm who may not be required to be licensed but should be registered. If the RIA has fewer than 25 million dollars under management you will need to check their record with the state government. If the individual is not on record with FINRA or the state you do not want to give them your money.

You want to avoid individuals who make claims that they can provide specific rates of return. An advisor may be able to put you into an investment that will guarantee 4% over 5 years with some strings attached, but if they are claiming market beating returns and above average fixed rates be careful. That leads us to the next line of defense.

Know what your money is invested in. You should receive a report of what investments you are in. The advisor should be able to tell you were your money is and you should receive detailed statements with the holdings. Avoid advisors who claim they can not disclose how or where they invest your money. This is a major red flag.

If the advisor is providing returns to good to be true or if your balance never fluctuates while earning above average returns, fraud is most likely involved. This was the biggest tip off in the Madoff scandal. It is simply impossible to provide above average returns without volatility in your account.

You can also protect yourself by understanding what type of financial service you need. A life insurance agent may be able to provide advice for protecting your family in case of death, but you should not seek tax advice from them. Do not be afraid to ask questions like; how long have you been working in this area of finance, what companies have you worked for in the past, and how are you compensated.

FINRA has a very good section on their website under the tab “Protect Yourself” with many more tips to avoid being scammed. I encourage everyone to read it before working with a financial professional.

As someone who works in the industry I can tell you that the majority of professionals are just that, professionals. They do what they do because they love helping people with their finances and want to build a business doing it. In any business you have a few bad apples that ruin it for the rest. As a consumer you need to protect yourself. Taking the few simple steps mentioned above will help you avoid most of the bad apples.